The Saudi Model

The United States of America’s long term goal for the Middle East is to establish Saudi type dictatorships throughout the volatile oil rich region. One of the main objectives toward that goal is the destabilisation of unpredictable or disobedient regimes such as the current Assad regime in Syria.

Destabilisation as Objective

As outrageous a hypotheses this may seem, it has the power to explain America’s foreign policy in the Middle East for the past decade. While it may seem ludicrous that the USA would empower radical Islamist movements over stable governments, the fact remains that the USA has been carrying out a campaign of de-stabilization from Libya to Iran to Pakistan with many stops in between.

As suggested here
“It may be that the United States had no intention of destroying the Taliban or Al Qeada. If we look at outcomes, we may conclude; on the contrary. The pattern suggests that the Americans aim to empower the clerics throughout the Middle East and to destroy the more secular and rationally based governments.”

The fact is that both the Taliban and Al Qeada have been empowered more than ever thanks to the war on terror. The Taliban have become more a threat inside Pakistan than ever and Al Qaeda is operating with impunity in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and throughout Northern Africa and the Middle East. If we consider the outcomes of Western interventions as opposed to what the stated goals of these interventions had been, we can only conclude that the American State Department, the Pentagon, NATO, the CIA/Homeland Security have taken the concept of incompetence to a rather bizarre new level. It is not simple incompetence, it is a matter of making America’s own officially stated nightmare come true. There’s something not right about this picture.

Western agitation in Syria shows no sign of abating; on the contrary. Assad, like Saddam, is a Bathist and like Gaddafi and Saddam, quasi socialist. Western media showed real excitement several weeks ago when they had reports of weapons of mass destruction used by Syria against the rebels. They have stopped reporting on it and this can only mean that either there were no chemical weapons or, it was the rebels that were using them as alleged by Assad.

The Americans have wizard-like skill in bringing disparate groups together for a common cause. It is amazing what billions of dollars in arms and cash can do. But it will be the people of Syria and the region that will not only suffer war, but the very unstable morning after.

Western imperial models of interference in other nations show well established pattern of exploiting chauvinistic divisions in all societies. When Shias are attacking Sunnis and vice versa, they are doing unpaid ground work for the State Department. Divide and conquer techniques in Ireland pitting Catholics against Protestants have worked very well in terms of the British Empires objectives. It’s an effective modus operandi that has been employed by Empires in every corner of the globe for many centuries.

Destabilising Pakistan

Musharraf’s return may fit into the ongoing destabilisation efforts of Pakistan. On the other hand, he may on his own, apart from Washington’s directives. Considering the scant media attention on his return, this is probably accurate.

Relations with the West have been increasingly strained in the past number of years. Previous to this, Pakistan, like Saudi Arabia, was supportive of Afghanistan’s Taliban. Musharrif was an obedient puppet. As soon as Washington declared the Taliban an enemy, he followed suit. This has created much internal strife in the country. The United States however have much influence due to the billions of American tax dollars that go to Pakistan. Of course, this aid (like much of the aid handed out all over the world) is a way to funnel large sums of tax dollars into the hands of arms sellers and private contractors. There are undoubtedly a significant number of powerful Pakistanis, both in the military and outside the military that benefit from this aid; it certainly does buy influence.

Public relations between Pakistan and the West have been deteriorating and continue to do so. Fractures and strains both domestically and internationally make Pakistan a very unstable situation. Pakistan has been showing increasing levels of disobedience and Western politicians and media are openly critical and suspicious of that government. Mike Mullen, past chair of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that “The Haqqani network...acts as a veritable arm of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence Agency” and blamed them for an attack on the American Embassy in Kabul.

This level of distrust of the Haqqani group and its concomitant distrust of Pakistan government places Pakistan on the very same ground as Syria, Gaddafi’s Libya, or any state that does not fit with Washington’s long term goals and objectives. Drone strikes continue unabated in Pakistan, further exacerbating already strained relations. The blatant and widely boasted murder of Osama bin laden has not helped the situation.
The likelihood that Pakistan will remain stable over the next decade is remote. Pakistan is armed with nukes. If the USA needs a Saudi king, the need is no greater than in Pakistan.

Syria

According to the New York Times,
“With help from the C.I.A., Arab governments and Turkey have sharply increased their military aid to Syria’s opposition fighters in recent months, expanding a secret airlift of arms and equipment for the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad, according to air traffic data, interviews with officials in several countries and the accounts of rebel commanders.”

The times article points out that the United States, Turkey, and other nations are coordinating large and frequent arms shipments from places such as Crotia.
Hassan Aboud, a commander of one of the rebel groups operating in Syria said, “There are fake Free Syrian Army brigades claiming to be revolutionaries, and when they get the weapons they sell them in trade”. The extent to which the weapons are sold for profit by local criminals isn’t known but given the various elements at play, there can be little doubt many faux rebels are getting very wealthy. The additional problem with this, for the West, is that it is likely that those same weapons will be used against the USA.

Jordan, Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, The United States, Crotia and others are involved in these frequent massive arms shipments to forces opposed to Assad.
After two years of fighting the opposition forces and more importantly, those facilitating them seem more determined than ever in their efforts to topple Assad.. At this point, heavy fighting is reported in Damascus and an attack on the University of Damascus has killed 15 students.
From the sidelines, the whole affair looks like an enormous disaster as well as a threat for the West and potentially, and most especially, Israel. Syrian destabilization may be key to the destabilization of the whole area. This will threaten Iran as well as unintended collaterals. Neighbours like Lebanon may be affected but if this hypothesis is correct, Lebanon must also fall.

The Arab League has formally recognized the Syrian rebels and Qatar has recently opened up an embassy in recognition of the Syrian opposition as Syria’s government. Qatar is an excellent example of the Saudi model. It is brutal and does not tolerate dissent. It enforces strict Islamic law. This result is a population free from dissent or trouble of any kind. The trains run on time and it is very easy to control.

Qatar may also be remembered for its enthusiastic recognition of the National Transition Council during the hostilities to usurp Gaddafi’s less than enthusiastic obedience to Western directives. Qatar showed it’s eager subservience to Washington by becoming the second nation (after France) to do so.

Progressive elements to governments in the Middle East are in the process of being wiped out in favour of a return to regressive and absolute feudal rule. The destabilization of Iran through internal dissent, a government that is both ruled through democratic elections as well as the Leader of the Revolution, or, Supreme Leader, may be seen as futile. Assassination may also be futile and pointless. Destabilization through war may get Washington closer to its objectives.
An era of destabilization rife with terrorism and competing religious factions waging civil war against each other may appears to be in the cards.

Israel

Israel will be in very deep trouble if this hypothesis has merit.
The instability in Egypt, Syria, general Palestinian suffering at Israel’s hand and the general antipathy throughout the Middle East place Israel in a very precarious place. As is often the case, what is promoted as increased security is anything but. Attacking Iran may push their tender situation over a tipping point.

Israeli citizens need to look at the history of American pragmatism when it comes to foreign affairs. When any nation, movement, or individual are no longer useful, they are either forgotten or finished off. Should the Saudi model gambit fail, and it will, Israel will be in a very difficult place. On the other hand, we would be hard pressed to find anything more hawkish than an Israeli politician. Obviously, there are no shortage of hawks within the voting population. Perhaps the people of Israel have considered many of the factors and dynamics that are considered here but choose to maintain settlements, Palestinian oppression, and war with Iran. We must also consider however that many Israelis are friends of their neigbours and want more than anything else, peace.

To accept the idea that the United States would be as ruthless and irresponsible as this article suggests would suggest something beyond scepticism regarding Uncle Sam. It would suggest something beyond cynicism. It would suggest a belief that the USA, NATO, and many of its allies conspire to buy leaders in the Muslim world and pay them to work against their own people. It further suggests that they have no qualms about waging war, killing scores of innocent civilians, and oppressing whole regions of the world in order to eventually control them.

That sounds about right.